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Any thoughts on this statistic?

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Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  Kenny B. on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:39 am

Below is a chart showing my GA/MP and actual MP paces for 2008-2011. My goal this cycle is to go 3:19 or 7:38 pace looking at the chart it seems I might be off a bit going by past statistics. Keep in mind 2010 was multiple marathon stint (4 in 14 weeks)

It seems there is a telling story here but WHAT?

Any positive perception of what is going on would be helpful.

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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  Schuey on Fri Aug 19, 2011 11:45 am

Yeah with running more miles your aerobic fitness has gotten better and your MP has come down resulting in faster marathon times.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  T Miller on Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:00 pm

@Kenny B. wrote:Below is a chart showing my GA/MP and actual MP paces for 2008-2011. My goal this cycle is to go 3:19 or 7:38 pace looking at the chart it seems I might be off a bit going by past statistics. Keep in mind 2010 was multiple marathon stint (4 in 14 weeks)

It seems there is a telling story here but WHAT?

Any positive perception of what is going on would be helpful.


I would be interested to see if the weather was a factor in your actual results. I would also like to see your best marathon in 2010.

2008 - 2009 you improved 38sec/mile
2009 - 2010 you improved 20sec/mile
2010 - 2011 you are attempting to improve 21sec/mile

It becomes increasingly more difficult to improve as you become a better runner. I'm not saying that you can't improve at the same rate but this is one very simplistic way to view the data and make a guess about your potential outcome this year.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  Kenny B. on Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:07 pm

@T Miller wrote:
@Kenny B. wrote:Below is a chart showing my GA/MP and actual MP paces for 2008-2011. My goal this cycle is to go 3:19 or 7:38 pace looking at the chart it seems I might be off a bit going by past statistics. Keep in mind 2010 was multiple marathon stint (4 in 14 weeks)

It seems there is a telling story here but WHAT?

Any positive perception of what is going on would be helpful.


I would be interested to see if the weather was a factor in your actual results. I would also like to see your best marathon in 2010.

2008 - 2009 you improved 38sec/mile
2009 - 2010 you improved 20sec/mile
2010 - 2011 you are attempting to improve 21sec/mile

It becomes increasingly more difficult to improve as you become a better runner. I'm not saying that you can't improve at the same rate but this is one very simplistic way to view the data and make a guess about your potential outcome this year.

This races were all in winter weather was decent for all but in 2010 there was pretty good headwind for first half.
You make a good point with the improvement on 38 and 20 sec but possibly the multi-marathon stint coupled with headwind kept me from a bit better outcome. Another 20 sec improvement I think is quite possible and certainly a reasonable goal.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  John Kilpatrick on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:01 pm

I don't know exactly what to make of it as a predictive tool, but it is cool to see consistent improvement. I think Dave posted that we can expect to see improvements for 7 years, so hopefully you've can continue down the road. I so think Tim is right in that many factors play into an individual race performance and big chunks of improvement are increasingly hard to come by....

In either case, your data looks very encouraging!

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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  T Miller on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:23 pm

@Kenny B. wrote:
@T Miller wrote:
@Kenny B. wrote:Below is a chart showing my GA/MP and actual MP paces for 2008-2011. My goal this cycle is to go 3:19 or 7:38 pace looking at the chart it seems I might be off a bit going by past statistics. Keep in mind 2010 was multiple marathon stint (4 in 14 weeks)

It seems there is a telling story here but WHAT?

Any positive perception of what is going on would be helpful.


I would be interested to see if the weather was a factor in your actual results. I would also like to see your best marathon in 2010.

2008 - 2009 you improved 38sec/mile
2009 - 2010 you improved 20sec/mile
2010 - 2011 you are attempting to improve 21sec/mile

It becomes increasingly more difficult to improve as you become a better runner. I'm not saying that you can't improve at the same rate but this is one very simplistic way to view the data and make a guess about your potential outcome this year.

This races were all in winter weather was decent for all but in 2010 there was pretty good headwind for first half.
You make a good point with the improvement on 38 and 20 sec but possibly the multi-marathon stint coupled with headwind kept me from a bit better outcome. Another 20 sec improvement I think is quite possible and certainly a reasonable goal.

I think you are right Kenny. If you take your best marathon out of the 2010 bunch and factor in the headwind then I'm guessing it would be something like a 30 second improvement. That would mean that you could very well do a 20 + sec improvement this fall.

Was it approximately 12 months between marathons since they were all in the winter months?

It's great to see this information plotted out.

It's also interesting that you are able to target a 20 sec improvement on a very modest increase in weekly mileage. Are you training smarter or have you switched training plans?

Also note that if you would have run, for example, 7:45 pace in 2010 then it would only be a 10 second improvement in 2011 targeting a 7:35. Perhaps 7:35 is a bit conservative for you.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  Kenny B. on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:29 pm

@T Miller wrote:

I think you are right Kenny. If you take your best marathon out of the 2010 bunch and factor in the headwind then I'm guessing it would be something like a 30 second improvement. That would mean that you could very well do a 20 + sec improvement this fall.

Was it approximately 12 months between marathons since they were all in the winter months?

It's great to see this information plotted out.

It's also interesting that you are able to target a 20 sec improvement on a very modest increase in weekly mileage. Are you training smarter or have you switched training plans?

Also note that if you would have run, for example, 7:45 pace in 2010 then it would only be a 10 second improvement in 2011 targeting a 7:35. Perhaps 7:35 is a bit conservative for you.

The races I have plotted are all 12 months apart taking place in November. 2010 was multiple marathons used as fun runs for 2 out of 4.

As far as training smarter well in 2010 I run 4 marathon during the cycle so that is NOT the smartest form of training to do your best in 1 race. Other than that not much different besides some tweaks here and there.

I see your point on possibly I was in 7:45 shape last year but trails and headwind did not help therefore 7:35 this might even be conservative. Well there you go!

Thank you very much for your feedback. As I continue to train and improve a bit more this cycle I see no reason not to shoot for sub 3:20 for sure.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  fostever on Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:55 pm

You're awesome dude and ya look slick in that orange 365 singlet! Oh you wanted just the first part about the time thing.Embarassed
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  JohnP on Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:15 am

@Kenny B. wrote:Below is a chart showing my GA/MP and actual MP paces for 2008-2011. My goal this cycle is to go 3:19 or 7:38 pace looking at the chart it seems I might be off a bit going by past statistics. Keep in mind 2010 was multiple marathon stint (4 in 14 weeks)

It seems there is a telling story here but WHAT?

Any positive perception of what is going on would be helpful.


Year 1 is of course a learning year. Year 2 is typically a reaction to what we did in year 1 and you seem dead on with your paces. But by year 3, we should have a good handle on what we can do. It almost seems like you went too aggressive in attempting to improve (34 seconds per mile). If you were runnign five hour marathons, it would be one thing. But you're running sub-3:30s so improvement is much harder to come by, and it taxes your body so much that everything pretty much has to be perfect leading up to and on race day. I think your 2011 goals/paces are good and more realistic than the 2010 plan. I really hope you can hit the 7:35, that's a very impressive time.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  Kenny B. on Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:09 am

@JohnP wrote:
@Kenny B. wrote:Below is a chart showing my GA/MP and actual MP paces for 2008-2011. My goal this cycle is to go 3:19 or 7:38 pace looking at the chart it seems I might be off a bit going by past statistics. Keep in mind 2010 was multiple marathon stint (4 in 14 weeks)

It seems there is a telling story here but WHAT?

Any positive perception of what is going on would be helpful.


Year 1 is of course a learning year. Year 2 is typically a reaction to what we did in year 1 and you seem dead on with your paces. But by year 3, we should have a good handle on what we can do. It almost seems like you went too aggressive in attempting to improve (34 seconds per mile). If you were runnign five hour marathons, it would be one thing. But you're running sub-3:30s so improvement is much harder to come by, and it taxes your body so much that everything pretty much has to be perfect leading up to and on race day. I think your 2011 goals/paces are good and more realistic than the 2010 plan. I really hope you can hit the 7:35, that's a very impressive time.

first full year was 2007 ran 4:18.
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Re: Any thoughts on this statistic?

Post  Michele "1L" Keane on Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:12 pm

You're doing fine, Kenny, and all this data makes my head spin. bom



Keep up the good work.
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