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Trying not to jinx it, but...

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Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  ounce on Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:38 pm

At what point do I believe my new pace is really the real thing?



Hard facts for me as a marathoner are:

1. 6 hour marathoner (6:12 at Houston this past January. 14 min pace or so).

2. Lost 30 pounds from March to July.

3. Doing cross training since February.



The statistics and the story.

Back at the end of July, I did a 9 mile run at a 12:43 pace. It seemed like I was a little tired during the run, but it seemed like any other 9 mile run I've done over the past 3 years in July in Houston (like 82 degree morning). The 12:43 pace was a bit of a surprise. So, I looked up a similar time and distance from the same time last year. Last year, I did the same distance 14:10 pace or 87 seconds per mile slower. That was pretty remarkable to me and I worked on trying to discount what I did.

This past Friday, I ran my 11 mile LR as part of Hal's Marathon 3 week 5 run. I ran it at a 13:33 pace and an average hr of 133 or 66% of hr max. It felt good and I was trying to run it between 65-70%. It was 80 degrees outside.

A year ago, my week 5 11 mile LR was done at a 15:00 pace at an average hr of 128. It was 81 degrees outside, that morning. So, here again is another run where I was 87 seconds faster per mile than a year ago.

Therefore my question to y'all is, at what point do I believe my new pace is really the real thing? I don't want to get my hopes up too far, if it ain't gonna happen. Thanks for your time.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  mul21 on Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:52 pm

Throw a 30 lb. weight in a back pack and go for a run. You'll probably be able to convince yourself pretty easily. Hell, just the imagery of doing it may convince you.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Jerry on Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:19 pm

The 30lbs loss is enough, you would need to work much less hard to pump blood and oxygen to your legs.

The hard evidence is race. I wouldn't look at training data unless you hit a pace better your prior race. The race has to be under perfect condition and executed perfectly as well.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Nick Morris on Tue Sep 06, 2011 3:55 pm

I agree with the boys...the 30 lb weight loss is the reason. I read somewhere that every 5 pounds lost equals a decrease of 4 minutes marathon time.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  T Miller on Tue Sep 06, 2011 3:57 pm

I vote yes
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Julie on Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:42 pm

Yeah I bet you will have a good marathon. With losing 5 lbs and really good training (more the training than the wt I am sure) I went from a 4:39 1st marathon to a 4:16 2nd marathon 7 mos later. It's totally possible to improve in a short time.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Michele "1L" Keane on Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:43 pm

Why don't you run a 10K or half marathon along the way so that you really believe? If the backpack imagery doesn't work, think of yourself running with two bags of dog food strapped to your back.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Jim Lentz on Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:39 pm

It sounds real to me.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Dave-O on Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:58 pm

@ounce wrote:At what point do I believe my new pace is really the real thing?


Now.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Reina on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:01 pm

Oz,



I can completely relate to your question. I would agree that it would be good to test your pace in a race, 10 k or half maybe? But I think you are probably much stronger as well as lighter than you have been ... and that definitely helps.



Congrats!



--Reina
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  T Miller on Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:02 am

Oz, I don't know if my previous yes makes any sense in the context of your question so I thought I should be a bit more detailed in my response. I think that you are realizing your new pace in your training runs which should be proof that you are ready to make the jump. It seems that all of the improvements that I've made over the years are proportional to the amount of weight that I'm carrying. When I think about it, I don't know if the fitness determines the weight or the weight determines the fitness. I guess this makes sense since VO2Max is expressed as millimeters of oxygen per kilogram of body weight per minute.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Jerry on Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:15 am

@T Miller wrote:

When I think about it, I don't know if the fitness determines the weight or the weight determines the fitness. I guess this makes sense since VO2Max is expressed as millimeters of oxygen per kilogram of body weight per minute.


I think for most of us, weight determines fitness as our body fat is way higher than elite or ideal. I tend to think we need to get at least under 10% body fat or our youth weight before we worry about underweight.

Conclusion, Jerry need to eat less more than run more. lol!
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  ounce on Wed Sep 07, 2011 12:29 pm

I thank y'all very much for the insight given. I have a metric marathon (26.2K) race in mid-November that I'll be running as a measure of how things are going. And I'm going to continue to drop a few more pounds, as that can only help.



The logical next question would be, so what's my new pace? But I think I'll treat this marathon like a first one to the degree that I'll just do what I can to finish, knowing all the while that it'll be faster than ever before. This might just be the funnest training cycle I've ever known.



Thanks again.
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Re: Trying not to jinx it, but...

Post  Liz R on Wed Sep 07, 2011 5:22 pm

Great progress! This is your new pace, and you will be even quicker come January.

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