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Early Prognosis Anyone?

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Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  mountandog on Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:36 pm

So I was able to run 11 @ 6:57 and 6 @ 6:38 during recent MP and LT training runs during a 60-70 mile training program. My goal is 6:53 ave. to break 3hrs in Boston. My previous best is 3:08. Best half is 1:28:xx this past October. I note that my training paces are 30-45 seconds faster than the same runs one year ago.

So, is 2:59:59 too aggressive a target at this point? I will do a couple of races in March to get a better idea, but just looking for some early opinions.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Michele "1L" Keane on Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:06 pm

Not if you're running those runs on hills.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  T Miller on Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:09 pm

Was your 3:08 run in Boston?
How many times have you run Boston?

I think it is very important that you practice running those paces for long, extended downhill sections to be successful in Boston.

I think it is certainly within the realm of possibility since you still have a number of weeks of training before the race.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Nick Morris on Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:13 pm

I think that sub 3:00:00 is not out of the question. From what you stated, it sounds like you are making a good progression in fitness level. Normally, that will result in a PR. There are those uncontrollable things that always play into whether or not a PR or goal actually happens (i.e. temperature, wind, etc.). From what I have heard and read, Boston is a tough course, but it is possible to PR at. You can do it!!!
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Ben Z on Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:14 pm

Nope. I'd say you are right about where you need to be based on what you describe.

If you really want to know try to run easy for two days (5-8 miles each day) at the end of a normal volume week and then try to maintain 6:50s for 12-15 miles after a brief warmup of 2-3 miles.

Personally, I've found that if I am able to maintain 12-15 miles at goal MP in training on tired legs I am ready to take a crack in a race after all of the other necessary workouts (lots of 20+ milers with some fast finish, 5-8 mile tempo runs at HMP, etc.).
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Ben Z on Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:16 pm

@T Miller wrote:Was your 3:08 run in Boston?
How many times have you run Boston?

I think it is very important that you practice running those paces for long, extended downhill sections to be successful in Boston.

I think it is certainly within the realm of possibility since you still have a number of weeks of training before the race.

Couldn't agree more - my lesson learned from Boston was to run even more downhill runs in training. And run them hard! I did a lot of downhill running, or so I thought, in training leading up to Boston and it was still not enough.

If you have not done this already I would start. But be sure to run easy for a couple of days after a hard downhill training session as your poor quadriceps take a beating.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  mountandog on Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:20 pm

@Ben Z wrote:
@T Miller wrote:Was your 3:08 run in Boston?
How many times have you run Boston?

I think it is very important that you practice running those paces for long, extended downhill sections to be successful in Boston.

I think it is certainly within the realm of possibility since you still have a number of weeks of training before the race.

Couldn't agree more - my lesson learned from Boston was to run even more downhill runs in training. And run them hard! I did a lot of downhill running, or so I thought, in training leading up to Boston and it was still not enough.

If you have not done this already I would start. But be sure to run easy for a couple of days after a hard downhill training session as your poor quadriceps take a beating.


I've run Boston the last 2 yrs. Last yr in 3:11:xx. I've been running a lot of hills, not a lot of fast runs, more the long runs and GA runs. My two training runs were on moderate hills. I'll have to incorporate more hard downhill running.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Jack_Scaff on Mon Feb 13, 2012 7:10 pm

No clue on if sub 3 is aggressive. All I will say is you are pretty damn fast!

Good luck. I say go for it. But then again, easy for me to say!
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Dave-O on Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:20 pm

With 8 weeks to go until Boston, I think you're on track. Keep plugging away, hammer the hills, toss in some tune-up races.....and pray for a tailwind. Cool
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Jerry on Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:54 pm

I say wait till next month. When you finally convince yourself you have it, with 3-4 weeks to go, the excitement starts building up and will carry you in the race. If you get too excited now thinking you finally have it, with too much time, ......

Would this be your first sub 3? I always assumed you broke it before somehow.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  mountandog on Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:25 pm

@Jerry wrote:I say wait till next month. When you finally convince yourself you have it, with 3-4 weeks to go, the excitement starts building up and will carry you in the race. If you get too excited now thinking you finally have it, with too much time, ......

Would this be your first sub 3? I always assumed you broke it before somehow.

Never broke it. Just started running at age 52. First marathon in 2009 was 3:30 so I've improved a bit. Just don't know what my limit is. Age curve vs. improvement curve. No, I'm not really excited yet, but was just curious what all you experts thought out there at this point in the training cycle.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  T Miller on Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:06 am

In addition to having the fitness to achieve your goal you need to have a solid race plan. I seem to always run the first half a bit too fast and end up paying for it in the final miles. I always plan to bank a little bit of time in preparation for giving some back in the Newton hills. After several unsuccessful attempts, I think the plan should be to run the first half easy, give up some time in the hills and make up the time in the closing miles. You should get others to weigh in on this since, like I said, I've not been too successful in the past.

We'll be there but I won't be racing it this time. I'll be pacing Wendy to a new PR.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  Jerry on Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:09 am

@mountandog wrote:
@Jerry wrote:I say wait till next month. When you finally convince yourself you have it, with 3-4 weeks to go, the excitement starts building up and will carry you in the race. If you get too excited now thinking you finally have it, with too much time, ......

Would this be your first sub 3? I always assumed you broke it before somehow.

Never broke it. Just started running at age 52. First marathon in 2009 was 3:30 so I've improved a bit. Just don't know what my limit is. Age curve vs. improvement curve. No, I'm not really excited yet, but was just curious what all you experts thought out there at this point in the training cycle.

Then I would suggest a half 4 weeks prior. I would also think you need to get at least under 1:25 to be able to break 3 hours.
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Re: Early Prognosis Anyone?

Post  fostever on Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:29 pm

@mountandog wrote:So I was able to run 11 @ 6:57 and 6 @ 6:38 during recent MP and LT training runs during a 60-70 mile training program. My goal is 6:53 ave. to break 3hrs in Boston. My previous best is 3:08. Best half is 1:28:xx this past October. I note that my training paces are 30-45 seconds faster than the same runs one year ago.

So, is 2:59:59 too aggressive a target at this point? I will do a couple of races in March to get a better idea, but just looking for some early opinions.
Really, wow nice job. I guess I won't be trying to pace along with you in April. I did 8 mi@ 6:58 last week but not 11. Was that 17 total or 2 different runs? Ether way, you looking good!
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