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The track for Wednesday to Thursday takes it through the the Warda, Texas area where the Wild Hare 50 was.  It's north of La Grange.  Yes, THAT La Grange.

OK, so now I'm singing ZZ Top in my head.  Glad you are fine so far.

Thanks.  Well, I'm still okay, but we had a 15 mile wide feeder band that was traveling east at 7 mph dropping that dumped 4.68" in 90 minutes, just now.  Some of the bayous that had earlier rain and didn't drain are going to be exceeding banks and getting into homes.  This isn't the case, so far, with Buffalo Bayou in my area.  However the southern Houston area is under a Flash Flood Emergency, which is the most serious flood warning the NWS has.

But we have to make it until Wednesday.  The tracking forecast of Harvey did not materially change from the post above.  It's moving ENE at 1 mph.

Harvey is the 14th strongest hurricane in American history going back to the 1600's.

That's water in the foreground.  The road just past the water is the exit from I-45 south to I-10 west.  Downtown is just on the other side of the Houston Transtar logo.  The camera is looking southeast, when I'm writing this.  The water is very close to getting onto the road.  This is White Oak Bayou.  I think it's been since 2001 and Tropical Storm Allison when that last happened.

If you'd like to see the rainfall for the last 24 hours in Harris County, this is the link
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

ounce wrote:

That's water in the foreground.  The road just past the water is the exit from I-45 south to I-10 west.  Downtown is just on the other side of the Houston Transtar logo.  The camera is looking southeast, when I'm writing this.  The water is very close to getting onto the road.  This is White Oak Bayou.  I think it's been since 2001 and Tropical Storm Allison when that last happened.

If you'd like to see the rainfall for the last 24 hours in Harris County, this is the link
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Well, this camera stopped functioning at just before 6 a.m.  I-10 is closed.  This is now a historic and will be the yard stick for other future storms in Houston.  The west side during Allison didn't get hit hard with inches.  This time, Harvey didn't favor one part of time over another. 

I just heard a TV weather person say, "If we're lucky, it'll stop on Wednesday."

Dry air is beginning get into Harvey, which will help dry it out.  The yellow on the below link is dry air, the green is rain, and the spots of purple are ice crystals signifying the moisture in the clouds is MUCH higher in the atmosphere.  Last night, there was a LOT of purple.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=srntx-09-48-0  Water Vapor

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=srntx-13-48-0  Infrared of Harvey.

I forgot to mention, yes, it's still raining.  The CBS affiliate is located along Buffalo Bayou about 2 miles from downtown.  Water got in the studios and they're broadcasting from a conference room.  It's the 2nd time I know of.

The Flash Flood Emergency continues.  Sorry for the length, but sometimes, no explanation is needed.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1045 AM CDT Sunday.

* At 439 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Rainfall
amounts in the last 24 hours of 14 to 28 inches has fallen
in portions of the emergency area. Elsewhere 8 to 14 inches has
with intense storms producing rainfall rates of 4 to 6 inches per
hour. Dangerous life threatening flooding is ongoing. Many creeks
rivers and bayous have flooded and have surpassed previous flood
record levels.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY from the Bay City area to Wharton to
Waller across the Houston Metro area to Stafford to Friendswood to
League City and Santa Fe. Travel across the area is severely hampered
if not impossible. Over 1000 high water rescues have been performed
and in some places emergency crews cannot reach the worst hit areas.
5 fatalities have been reported. Some people are using attics and
the second floor to escape the rising flood waters.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, northwestern Baytown,
Missouri City, Galveston Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas
City, Matagorda, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Rosenberg,
Alvin, northwestern Angleton, Dickinson, Stafford, Bay City and
South Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

&&

Been thinking of you this weekend Oz.  Stay safe.

Mike MacLellan wrote:Been thinking of you this weekend Oz.  Stay safe.

Much obliged, Mike.  Houston is not yet halfway through this.

-30-

KHOU, close to Buffalo Bayou, went off the air at 9:52 because of flooding.  They're now on FB live from the Federal Reserve building, down the street.

Note:  I haven't added the caps and underlining.  The Flash Flood Emergency stretches 50 miles west, 100 miles north, 40 miles south and 110 miles east to the Louisiana border until 1:30 p.m....so far.  Counties east of Austin are also under a Flash Flood Emergency.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...EPIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES IN AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS...

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES CONTINUE FOR LIFE-THREATENING 
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to stream across Southeast
Texas this morning while rotating around slowly south southeastward
moving Tropical Storm Harvey. If there is any good news, it might
be that the rainfall rates in our county warning area are not as 
high as they were during the catastrophic events overnight. Even 
though these rains are lighter, some of them are falling on already
devastated areas and are aggravating ongoing rescue efforts. 
Flash Flood Emergencies and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect,
and we also continue to deal with rotating cells that are producing
radar indicated tornado signatures. As for the forecast update, 
current thinking is that there should be a break in this morning's
activity. Additional development is anticipated this evening and 
overnight by almost every model, and this batch of storms could be
the next round of very heavy rainfall. If these storms move into 
or develop across already flooded areas, Harvey's epic catastrophic
flood event will only get worse. With the slow movement of Harvey
anticipated over the next several days, additional rainfall amounts
of 15 to 25 inches are expected through Friday. Any rainfall amounts
this high will lead to more catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.
Unfortunately, this event is no where close from being over. 42 

That's amazing, and horrible. Glad you're in a less flood-prone spot. Are you guaranteed to stay dry there, or is it possible that it could get to you, too?

Mark B wrote:That's amazing, and horrible. Glad you're in a less flood-prone spot. Are you guaranteed to stay dry there, or is it possible that it could get to you, too?

We're having a little break, right now.  I think it's been an hour, now, but we're to be getting another round of rain tonight.  I think I'm in good shape for another 12 inches.  (Wow, that's a mind blowing statement.)

We still have to get to Wednesday.

Mark, you may appreciate this.  One of the Portland stations is owned by Tegna.  So is KHOU here and WFAA in Dallas.  Since KHOU doesn't have a studio presence yet and are not on broadcast TV yet, WFAA is broadcasting on KHOU's FB and internet using KHOU's reporters and photographers to report to the Houston citizens.  

So, KHOU's live trucks are beaming to WFAA's studio and anchor to be uploaded on KHOU's media.  The anchor in Dallas told the reporters to report as if you are talking to Houstonians, not someone in Dallas.

I haven't been able to catch up on the news but I did hear that Houston was really getting hit hard.  Good to hear that you're safe!

Pretty good excuse to miss a training run...

Glad you were able to post and let us know you were weathering the storm.

nkrichards wrote:I haven't been able to catch up on the news but I did hear that Houston was really getting hit hard.  Good to hear that you're safe!

Pretty good excuse to miss a training run...

Glad you were able to post and let us know you were weathering the storm.

Yeah, it's been the one for future comparisons.

These are 4 gauges I have been following
Rainfall totals for 2 days:
Addicks Reservoir - 26.02", height 103.31' new record
Barker Reservoir - 26.32", height 97.59' new record
Buffalo Bayou at Beltway 8 - 27.42", height 68.86' new record, +6.6 feet out of banks
Buffalo Bayou at Shepherd - 23.60", height 37.48', +9.48 feet out of banks.

For Buffalo Bayou, Shepherd Drive is where the water spreads out, on its 3 mile journey to downtown, then the Ship Channel, then the Gulf.  Beltway 8 is 10 miles from Shepherd.  Addicks and Barker feeds Buffalo Bayou.  It's 16 miles from Barker to Shepherd.

Code:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
715 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...Harvey leads to August 2017 Being the Wettest Month on Record...

Rainfall was extreme yesterday and the city of Houston (Bush IAH)
established a new daily rainfall record with 16.07 inches. It is the
single highest daily rainfall total in city history. In the last two
days, 24.44 inches of rain has fallen. August 2017 is now the
wettest August on record and also the wettest month all time beating
June 2001 (Tropical Storm Allison).

Since June 1st, Houston has received 46.16 inches of rain which is
about 33 inches above normal. The annual average rainfall for
Houston is 49.77 inches, so roughly a years worth of rain has fallen
in the last three months.

I guess this works to average out the drought of 2011.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow motion
toward the southeast is expected through tonight. A gradual turn
toward the northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper
coasts of Texas through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow intensification is possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
along the Texas coast is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

YTD temp range and YTD rainfall.

Jesus.  It's too bad that it's impractical to have the infrastructure in place to harness that water and be ready for the next drought.  

Also, where are those graphs from?  Kinda neat, in spite of the actual consequences of that green tower.

Mike MacLellan wrote:Jesus.  It's too bad that it's impractical to have the infrastructure in place to harness that water and be ready for the next drought.  

Also, where are those graphs from?  Kinda neat, in spite of the actual consequences of that green tower.

I don't know where the graphs are from, but I'll ask.  One of the Moderators on the KHOU Weather Forum I follow posted it.

So far today, 3.1" has been received at a WeatherBug site about 2-3 miles north. 

Below is the rain gauge at Buffalo Bayou and Beltway 8 for the past 24 hours in 1 hour increments.

Good grief! And it sounds like Harvey is drifting back your way, to bring another 15+ inches of rain.

Glad you're high and dry.

Mark B wrote:Good grief! And it sounds like Harvey is drifting back your way, to bring another 15+ inches of rain.

Glad you're high and dry.

Yeah, the tracking once Harvey got going has been all over the place. But the models have been consistent the past 24 hours for Harvey to do what the below advisory shows the path to be.  Once that thing gets east (less than 95 longitude), the rain lessens and the bayous and rivers can begin to recede.

If y'all hear on TV or in the newspaper that Houston officials should've evacuated, don't believe it.  Can you imagine millions of people on the freeway?  In addition, San Antonio and Austin were evacuation cities AND would be getting tropical storm force winds and rains, plus the people from Corpus.  So, that only leaves Dallas.  For millions of people. Ain't gonna happen.  Hunker down.

The 3.1" in rain reported at 5:25 pm is now 5.53".

Harvey has been called a 1,000 year flood event, meaning there's a 0.1% chance yearly of this much rain falling.  The last one like that was the Tax Day Flood in 2015.

The forecast track in the prior post is a living document as evidenced by the bottom left hand corner says it's the 4 a.m. update.  So, it gives the exact location of Harvey at the 'X'

I'm pleased to report the 4 a.m. longitude is 94.8W and the rain is lessening on the west side.  Only 1" since midnight.

Personally, I'm past the critical point regarding flooding, the power is on, and I have plenty of food to last me another week or longer.  Just like y'all prepare for various snow blizzards, ice storms, and Fluffmageddons, some here prepare for hurricanes.  The only hole in my planning is alternate power, but that's okay because I have other options.

We still have another month, typically, to get out of Houston's hurricane season.

I haven't had time to watch much of the coverage but what I've seen is mind boggling.  That's a lot of water! 

My nephew helped evacuate his in-laws one year...I'll have to ask him when it was...maybe 2011??  I remember his stories about the gridlock on the freeways.  They moved in with him in Dallas and recently all moved to Oregon.

Stay safe and keep us posted.

nkrichards wrote:I haven't had time to watch much of the coverage but what I've seen is mind boggling.  That's a lot of water! 

My nephew helped evacuate his in-laws one year...I'll have to ask him when it was...maybe 2011??  I remember his stories about the gridlock on the freeways.  They moved in with him in Dallas and recently all moved to Oregon.

Stay safe and keep us posted.

Yes, it's a ton.  With the west side of town beginning phase 2, areas in danger are those near flood zone of rivers flowing downstream and people needing rescuing.  Everywhere received 30" where they live, but the runoff from upstream is coming, too.  Officials are trying hard to convince those affected to take this seriously because it's nothing like they've ever seen before.  This concerns people in a 100 mile radius of Houston.

Freeway off ramps are being used as boat launches.  FEMA boats from Orange County, California were here on Saturday doing water rescues.  They drove themselves and about 20 boats on trailers and were in Austin before the hurricane arrived near Corpus Christi.  Then drove to Houston on Saturday.  California Task Force 5 has also arrived.  Connecticut sent us a C-130.  NYC has sent people, food and other rescue items.  From Louisiana, the Cajun Navy.  And that's only what I've seen on TV, I'm sure there's more.

There is only 1 freeway completely open, plus the 610 Loop, which is a 30 mile freeway around the city.  Both airports might open tomorrow at noon.

The tropical storm is moving NE and areas east of Houston to New Orleans will be getting rain we got.  Beaumont already had 25".  The slide below shows the 6 hour rain area, today.



Two reservoirs, Addicks and Barker, on the west side of town are going to spillover and/or around for the first time ever.  Inflows should stop by Labor Day, but the spillover at Addicks will stop Sept 20 and some houses might get flooded.  The Barker spillover should stop by Sept 4.

Somebody, somewhere has a statistics bug to do this calculation. 

I saw on local TV where Harvey has dropped 9 trillion gallons of water, which is:
- enough water to fill Great Salt Lake twice.
- enough water to put New Orleans under 128 feet of water.
- enough water to put the entire lower 48 states in 0.17" of water.

Not sure if that's Harvey all over Texas or just SE Texas.

edit:  The 9 trillion is real and for the 4 days of rain in Houston.  NBC explained it to me.

With all of the fine help from the Coast Guard and the Texas National Guard, the Navy tried to help, but it just didn't work out.

https://www.duffelblog.com/2017/08/navy-destroyer-collides-with-building-in-downtown-houston/

The sun came out, this evening.  Bet your bottom dollar.

I got a mile in, this morning.  Well, it was a mile.  .

Anywho, this afternoon, I went over to the SPCA to volunteer for the afternoon.  Evidently, it wasn't an original idea as I was volunteer #70 of the day at noon.  I ended up walking about 5 dogs and played with 3 pups.  One dog was a lab that was pulling, rather than walking.  So, I went to a very brisk walk speed to see if I could tire him out or get his tongue long and wide.  The SPCA had a trail to walk that was about a 220 yard circle. 

On about the 7th loop, he started slowing up and not pulling as hard.  I ended up walking him for an hour with 1 break.  The break was a bad idea as he got some of his wind back.  He was not dependent on human affection.  If anything, I'd say he's pissed and so anybody walking him was going to get pulled along.

I did find this black and white 30 pound shepherd mix that was just a sweetie.  If I was in the market for a dog, that would be the one.

The rescues continue to occur and the water keeps on flowing, flooding places that have never flooded.  The whole 12,000 member Texas National Guard was mobilized on Monday and the other 49 states either have sent people and assets or have offered to.

If y'all see any reports of a furniture store owner opening his stores as shelters with the people sleeping on the new furniture and mattresses (I saw a report this evening on ABC evening news), this man, Jim McIngvale, is the real deal.  He is revered in Houston.  He's worth taking a look on wikipedia.  The only people more revered are George and Barbara Bush.  Houston football player J.J. Watt would probably be 3rd or 4th.

I'll try to run again tomorrow.

ounce wrote:Somebody, somewhere has a statistics bug to do this calculation. 

I saw on local TV where Harvey has dropped 9 trillion gallons of water, which is:
- enough water to fill Great Salt Lake twice.
- enough water to put New Orleans under 128 feet of water.
- enough water to put the entire lower 48 states in 0.17" of water.

Not sure if that's Harvey all over Texas or just SE Texas.

edit:  The 9 trillion is real and for the 4 days of rain in Houston.  NBC explained it to me.

That's just mind boggling.

Good on you for helping walk the doggies.