Can't decide do I switch marathons this weekend?

I am scheduled to run Hartford Saturday but weather calls for 22-25 mph winds 52-55 while running partly sunny headed in S direction. This is pretty strong winds to get my BQ especially since miles 18-24 are headed south. I can cancel my hotel stay up until the day of my stay so that is good.

My alternative is the Atlantic City Marathon on Sunday 11mph winds 55-60+degrees Sunny. It would cost me $100 more total which is a non-issue. I'd have to register at expo Drive down on Saturday is only 1:30 min vs. 3:20 drive. Weather is warmer but not as windy. But it is an out and back on the boardwalk and weather can change.

I have basically until tomorrow night to make final decision so I will check weather but assuming no changes what would you do in this situation.

Winds not quite that strong cost me somewhere between 1 and 3 minutes this spring I would bet. If it was me, I'd do a hard MP run and then re-taper for Philly and go for the BQ there since it doesn't sound like either race will have ideal conditions.

If the forecast holds, i would switch. That is a long late-race stretch that is straight south and not sheltered from the wind. But the forecast has been mighty unreliable and rapidly-changing here.

I'd go with lower temps because wind predictions are more suspect. You could have almost no wind on race day. You could plan for both... if the wind is bad on race day, don't run and do the Sunday race.

That's a tough call Kenny. Winds cost me about 5 minutes I think at CIM a few years ago. But warm weather is just as tough. I agree that temps are more predictable than winds so I can only hope the winds will die down for you.

Mr MattM wrote:I'd go with lower temps because wind predictions are more suspect. You could have almost no wind on race day. You could plan for both... if the wind is bad on race day, don't run and do the Sunday race.

I agree. Besides, I am not going to spend $100 to switch to a non perfect condition. Besides besides, you still have time. Don't be too desperate. Besides besides besides,you may just have it under the 22-25mph wind.

Update

AC looks to be cooler now at 47 degrees during the race 12-13 mph winds

Hartford warmer 51 to 60 13-17mph winds at 17 during 18-24 still south.

Looks like ac might be the better move. Waiting game at this point. Need to make decision by tonight.

Might drive down fri or sat register and then drive back sunday to race ac. Save me 2$50 race starts 8am leave house 5:30. More and more this makes sense.

The northeast makes it very difficult to chase weather. I never trust any forecast until I look out the window. You could switch and end up burned. Whatever one you chose I would just look at the weather that morning then if it's not right treat it as a long run or do the half if they have one. Then wait for Philly to make your attempt.

Alex Kubacki wrote:The northeast makes it very difficult to chase weather. I never trust any forecast until I look out the window. You could switch and end up burned. Whatever one you chose I would just look at the weather that morning then if it's not right treat it as a long run or do the half if they have one. Then wait for Philly to make your attempt.

I would then choose AC as I can look out my window that day and just drive their accordingly. Hartford I'd have to drive up Friday night stay at hotel then look out window.

Agree, weather changes very quickly! AC seems the safer bet!

Kenny B. wrote:AC seems the safer bet!

House always wins.

Jerry wrote:

Kenny B. wrote:AC seems the safer bet!

House always wins.

Agree. Roll the dice. I think if I am going to take a chance AC makes more sense. Unless the weather changes between now and then dramtically AC is where I will be. Ill actually save over $200.

Kenny B. wrote:

Jerry wrote:

Kenny B. wrote:AC seems the safer bet!

House always wins.

Agree. Roll the dice. I think if I am going to take a chance AC makes more sense. Unless the weather changes between now and then dramtically AC is where I will be. Ill actually save over $200.

Good choice...I would make the change to Atlantic City...

Kenny B. wrote:

Jerry wrote:

Kenny B. wrote:AC seems the safer bet!

House always wins.

Agree. Roll the dice. I think if I am going to take a chance AC makes more sense. Unless the weather changes between now and then dramtically AC is where I will be. Ill actually save over $200.

Shame on AC or Donald Trump if you end up saving $200.

Wind really scares me. but you never know with weather,I'd consider switching and really really hope the sunday weather is good

amyjoann wrote:Wind really scares me. but you never know with weather,I'd consider switching and really really hope the sunday weather is good

It's hit or miss on both but hartford seems to be worse odds. So AC is the better play here.

Well, as of the other day GR was great weather, now it is showing as raining - yuk, but better than heat in my book.

Michele "1L" Keane wrote:Well, as of the other day GR was great weather, now it is showing as raining - yuk, but better than heat in my book.

Right now AC still is the better play here at 6am on friday. But both are a gamble but seems if I am going to gamble keep it local and save $200.

I expect you are making the right call!