To BQ or not to BQ that is the question!

I ran a HM today 1:32:27 which equates according to McMillian 3:15
marathon. 3:15 is the minimum I need to BQ this year at Hartford or
Philly.

My PR prior to this is 3:27 (but as multiple marathon quest).

Question: Would you shoot for 3:15 at Hartford and take a chance of imploding or run
a bit more conservative yet still a challenge at around 3:18 and save
BQing for next year where I can possibly go down to 3:10 and maybe
secure I get into Boston not just BQ?

I can always follow up at Philly for BQ or 3:18.

If you are ready to run that pace, run it. Several reasons:

1) You can't bank on next year, weather, injuries, fatigue can all impact it
2) Why not take more than one chance at a BQ. Improves your odds. You still have next year if you don't get it this fall.
3) You need to get a feel for what 3:15 is. Not 1:32 or 3:27. Different deal altogether. You will learn much from your attempt for your next try.

Only you know where you stand on your training when you toe the line. If you think you can do, go for it!

In the past few years, have you been able to achieve the marathon time that your HM time predicted? If so, maybe go for it. It's just a pretty large amount of time to improve especially at that level but it's also clear that you could probably have gone faster in today's race. Just one thing I am not sure of - this will be to qualify for 2013, right? So you still have a spring marathon to also qualify if you miss. You are improving quite a bit and this is in the realm of possibility so might as well go for it.

Just run smart. Run your best. If you BQ, you BQ. If you don't - you don't. What you really want is to learn how to better race/run a marathon. Start with the 3:15. Let them run ahead. Let them go through the half a minute ahead of you. At mile 18 - evaluate your race and start reeling in the 3:15 group.

What's your MP been this cycle? If you're planning on dropping it by 10sec on race day, your body won't have made the efficiency adjustments necessary to hold that for 26.2 miles.

Some good replies so far. I have to look at my MP paces the past runs this cycle. I think they are very close to 7:30 and I plan doing one more on Sat. Wife says go for it. I like the idea of staying with 3:15 pace team but right behind them keeping them insight. I think I will know the right call once it gets a bit closer. I think if the weather is ideal it might make good sense.

Hartford is a pretty good course for it. That's a big jump. What do you have to lose? If you crash and burn, will you regret the decision? My marathon results have been slower than projected off my HM times. Still, i think you've run so many that you have the perfect perspective to make the decision. Get that zen thing together and sort it out!

I guess I'm sort of with Michael - you have a lot of experience with running, so it seems like this will definitely not be your last marathon. What do you have to lose if you don't make 3:15? Doesn't sound like very much, so if it was me, I would go for it. I understand keeping things within reason, but it's not like you haven't been training with a lot of miles lately. The question is, would you regret not trying for it if you ran a 3:18 or so? Or would you feel bad if you went for it, crashed and burned, and ended up with what you thought was a subpar time? Either way, you can't really lose and you know you'll have our support!

Mike MacLellan wrote:What's your MP been this cycle? If you're planning on dropping it by 10sec on race day, your body won't have made the efficiency adjustments necessary to hold that for 26.2 miles.

I agree with Michael and voted "No". I think that the risk of blowing up is there. I was in your same position last year, went for it, and paid dearly. My glutes blew out and I failed big time. Which knocked big whole in my confidence, because it was the first time that I had ever had a set back in running. I say play it safe and get a 3:18...Which is below your goal and would be a new PR. Then go for it next year, when you have a full training cycle with 3:15 as your goal.

I tried to qualify last year with a 3:20. I chose Chicago. I think I was on the cusp of being in 3:20 shape. The weather was not ideal. Some people here were able to manage a PR or a great race. Matt M and Schuey. Others of us suffered. Dave-O, myself and others.

I came back three weeks later and ran an easy 3:24. I think if I would have pushed harder in the second race I MIGHT have BQ'd. Maybe. But I ran a good race and I am very happy with it. It was another step forward. And that is what you are looking for - another step forward. So . . . you are right. If the weather is right and you feel good you can do it!

Go big or go home!

Of course! A horse is a horse of course of course!! BE a horse!

Don't take tomorrow for granted. Carpe Diem! Ask Kory about that. We're all just one injury away from losing a lot of training time. We sometimes just burn out. Sometimes other things in life take priority. You have today and that's it. If on race day you feel like you can do it... do it!



As for MP miles... I didn't run MP miles before Chicago last year and hit my goal. I'm not a believer in running MP miles in training. To me, they are pretty meaningless from a training perspective. Too fast for GA and too slow for LT work. MP is by definition the 'no man's land' pace. It doesn't focus on a specific energy system. It's between energy systems, and really only suitable for race day. Just my opinion, and one that's not commonly held.



Really, you won't know till race day, so relax and decide at the start line.

JohnP wrote:In the past few years, have you been able to achieve the marathon time that your HM time predicted?

I am with John on this one. FWIW, 11 months before my 3:19 BQ, I ran 1:28 half.

Time is on your side, no need to take extra risk to blow up a learning experience.

Don't let this be you...

Mr MattM wrote:Don't take tomorrow for granted. Carpe Diem! Ask Kory about that. We're all just one injury away from losing a lot of training time. We sometimes just burn out. Sometimes other things in life take priority. You have today and that's it. If on race day you feel like you can do it... do it!



As for MP miles... I didn't run MP miles before Chicago last year and hit my goal. I'm not a believer in running MP miles in training. To me, they are pretty meaningless from a training perspective. Too fast for GA and too slow for LT work. MP is by definition the 'no man's land' pace. It doesn't focus on a specific energy system. It's between energy systems, and really only suitable for race day. Just my opinion, and one that's not commonly held.



Really, you won't know till race day, so relax and decide at the start line.

I 2 think the MP is meaningless.

That's a funny video... but there's no way KB would end up like that pacing for a 3:15. Zero chance. Don't forget, Kenny has been running a lot of marathons along the way. He has endurance and has added speed. Most people go the other way... they start with speed but lack endurance. Most people just don't run enough marathons!

If Kenny starts at 3:15 pace, the worst I see is missing by a couple of minutes... no big blow up. Won't happen. When I made my first real attempt at my first BQ (3:20) I ran a 3:23:59... and I lost those 3 minutes after mile 22. 7 weeks later I ran a 3:19. I learned more from that 3:23:59 than I would have had I paced out at 3:25 and made it. I get why some people are ultra-conservative, but I believe KB can run a 3:15 if everything lines up. If it doesn't, then I recommend taking whatever the day gives... 3:18, 3:22, whatever.

If you think you are capable of that time and it's a good day to race, why not go for it? You've done the training so if you believe it supports the effort, don't be afraid to be fast. Of course, you should still follow the old marathon strategy of starting within yourself and listening to your body early on.

Good luck with whatever you decide.

Go by feel. Maybe plan to negative split it. If its not there then back off a little and still try for 3:20.

I completely agree with what Mr. Matt says above. Kenny know himself too well at this point to seriously blow up, and I honestly feel that the time is well within his realm. I also honestly believe that he can miss it by a couple of minutes and PR very easily running the smart race he knows how to run.

I have a lot of experience with not enough endurance and too much speed for a marathon thus leading to a major blow up around 21-22 miles. I've learned a ton over the last few years, and I know that I err on the side of ultra conservatism. Kenny has learned as much if not more than I and he has the endurance as well as the speed. Be smart, Kenny and go for it, but also know when to dial it back if you have to. All your hard work will be rewarded.

PS If it is worth anything, I don't do MP runs either. I do often run fast finish long runs, but my goal for those is to take the latter miles below MP.

I think you are running Napa in 2012 (albeit not as a goal race if I recall)? A fast course, generally good conditions, if not too wet, and it gives you enough time to recover if Hartford does not materialize.



Just a slow observer's 2 cents.

Wow! You guys are awesome. Some great and motivational and maybe a bit to kind remarks! lol

I think 3;15 is a possibility and I agree if I listen to my body which I am good at I can cut back a bit if I feel explosion coming and cruise ins with 3:18 3:19.

I will mull it all over all announce my decision LOL!

Thanks

I don't think you're asking to blow up or even have a less than positive marathon by aiming for 3:15. And honestly, I don't see how aiming for 3:15 and then running any other time would in any way hinder your ability to run a faster goal time next year if that was part of the question (which is kind of sounded like thinking about next yr was a factor) Go with what the day gives you and do your best!

But really, of all the runners, I think you'd be one of the top to understand your capabilities because of all the data and all the training you do. You'll be great either way!

Oh, and Nick, that was so sad of a video but I did laugh. I misread the title and thought it said 20 miles and I thought, oh wow, he still has a ways to go. Then I heard all the finishers announced and really felt badly for him.

He's going for it

I was there yesterday in Philly watching you cross the finish line. You had more left. 3:15 is within reach. Right Now. If I'm you, I'd rather go for the BQ with a 20% chance of success and an 80% possibility of missing and even potentially blowing a PR than do the safe thing and go for the 80% chance of a PR (but non BQ) time.